Stage 1 of the Tour de France runs from the Belgian city of Liège in a big counterclockwise circle to finish at Seraing, Belgium, barely a stone’s throw away on the other side of the Meuse River. Although there are mountain points available at five locations, they are all Category 4, which means most of the sprinters will probably take them in stride and make the dash at the end of the day for the hilltop finish.

We think that means that some of the true climbers — someone like Jérôme Pineau who finished on the Prologue’s cusp — have the best shot at getting the Point d’Appui. The run into Seraing could get dicey since the entire peloton is likely to come together for the finish and the final kilometers have a few nasty kinks in the cord. Odds are good that all will come home we’ll still have an even number of riders and no fulcrum on the day, but the early stages are the most jittery and anything can happen. (I’m trying not to say that odds are better than even that a crash will force a couple of riders to abandon because, really, who wants to jinx an opening stage?)

Although Pineau is a likely suspect to be the first Point d’Appui, it’s more likely that sprinters behind him will move up in the rankings and push another rider down to the Point d’Appui. Sandy Casar of FDJ-Bigmat, now in 88th position, seems a likely suspect.